Oregon Senate race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
>99% Dem
Rep <1%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Jeff Merkley | 98% |
| David Brock Smith | <1% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Jeff Merkley | 99% |
| David Brock Smith | 1% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/6/2026: 96% | 10/29/2026: 98% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 92% | 10/29/2026: 99% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 4% | 10/29/2026: <1% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 8% | 10/29/2026: 1% |
Poll average
No polls of this race yet.
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Jeff Merkley | Democrat |
| David Brock Smith | Republican |
| Gary Lyndon Dye | Libertarian |
| Chris Henry | Other |