Oklahoma Senate race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
2% Dem
Rep 98%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | N’Kiyla Thomas | 3% |
| Kevin Hern | 98% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas | 2% |
| Kevin Hern | 98% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/4/2026: 2% | 10/29/2026: 3% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 6% | 10/29/2026: 2% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/3/2026: 95% | 10/29/2026: 98% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 92% | 10/29/2026: 98% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+21.0
Kevin Hern (R)
48%
Jim Priest (D)
27%
Ron Meinhardt (I)
5%
Curtis Stinnett (I)
3%
Sevier White (L)
2%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Kevin Hern | Republican |
| N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas | Democrat |
| Sevier White | Libertarian |
| Ron Meinhardt | Independent |
| Curtis Stinnett | Independent |
Oklahoma Senate race: polls over time
3 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Kevin Hern 48%
Brian Ragain 4%
Curtis Stinnett 3%
Gary England 8%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Hern | 48% | 3 | 8/6/2026 |
| Brian Ragain | 4% | 1 | 6/3/2026 |
| Curtis Stinnett | 3% | 1 | 8/6/2026 |
| Gary England | 8% | 1 | 6/3/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Hargrave | 8/3–8/6 | 500 RV |
Kevin Hern (R)
Jim Priest (D)
Ron Meinhardt (I)
Curtis Stinnett (I)
Sevier White (L)
|
| JMC Enterprises | 6/2–6/3 | 550 LV |
Kevin Hern (R)
Gary England (R)
Brian Ragain (R)
Sean Buckner (R)
Nick Hankins (R)
|
| Pulse Decision Science | 3/7–3/9 | 510 LV |
Kevin Hern (R)
Stephanie Bice (R)
|