New Mexico Senate race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
97% Dem
Rep 3%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Ben Ray Luján | 97% |
| Larry E. Marker | 3% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Ben Ray Luján | 98% |
| Larry Marker | 2% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 96% | 10/28/2026: 97% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 96% | 10/28/2026: 98% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 3% | 10/28/2026: 3% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 3% | 10/28/2026: 2% |
Poll average
2 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+17.0
Ben Ray Luján (D)
53.5%
Larry Marker (R)
36.5%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Ben Ray Luján | Democrat |
| Larry Marker | Republican |
New Mexico Senate race: polls over time
4 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Ben Ray Luján 53.5%
Larry Marker 36.5%
Ben Luján 69%
Matt Dodson 9%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Ray Luján | 53.5% | 3 | 10/9/2026 |
| Larry Marker | 36.5% | 3 | 10/9/2026 |
| Ben Luján | 69% | 1 | 4/24/2026 |
| Matt Dodson | 9% | 1 | 4/24/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 10/1–10/9 | 1,125 LV |
Ben Ray Luján (D)
Larry Marker (R)
|
| SurveyUSA | 9/25–9/30 | 576 LV |
Ben Ray Luján (D)
Larry Marker (R)
|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 8/21–8/28 | 516 LV |
Ben Ray Luján (D)
Larry Marker (R)
|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 4/17–4/24 | 534 LV |
Ben Luján (D)
Matt Dodson (D)
|