North Carolina Senate race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
97% Dem
Rep 3%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Roy Cooper | 97% |
| Michael Whatley | 4% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Roy Cooper | 97% |
| Michael Whatley | 3% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 86% | 10/28/2026: 97% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 85% | 10/28/2026: 97% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 14% | 10/28/2026: 4% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 15% | 10/28/2026: 3% |
Poll average
10 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+11.0
Roy Cooper (D)
52%
Michael Whatley (R)
41%
Shannon Bray (L)
2.6%
Michael Dublin (G)
1.5%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Michael Whatley | Republican |
| Roy Cooper | Democrat |
| Michael Dublin | Green |
| Shannon Bray | Libertarian |
North Carolina Senate race: polls over time
51 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Michael Whatley 40.6%
Roy Cooper 52%
Michael Dublin 1.3%
Shannon Bray 2%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Whatley | 40.6% | 49 | 10/25/2026 |
| Roy Cooper | 52% | 49 | 10/25/2026 |
| Michael Dublin | 1.3% | 17 | 10/25/2026 |
| Shannon Bray | 2% | 17 | 10/25/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | 10/24–10/25 | 722 LV |
Roy Cooper (D)
Michael Whatley (R)
Shannon Bray (L)
Michael Dublin (G)
|
| ActiVote | 10/8–10/20 | 400 LV |
Roy Cooper (D)
Michael Whatley (R)
|
| Harper Polling | 10/18–10/20 | 600 LV |
Roy Cooper (D)
Michael Whatley (R)
Shannon Bray (L)
Michael Dublin (G)
|
| High Point University | 10/1–10/20 | 620 LV |
Roy Cooper (D)
Michael Whatley (R)
Shannon Bray (L)
Michael Dublin (G)
|
| SurveyUSA | 10/7–10/11 | 643 LV |
Roy Cooper (D)
Michael Whatley (R)
|
| Trafalgar Group | 10/8–10/10 | 1,091 LV |
Roy Cooper (D)
Michael Whatley (R)
Michael Dublin (G)
Shannon Bray (L)
|
| Elon University/YouGov | 9/29–10/8 | 561 LV |
Roy Cooper (D)
Michael Whatley (R)
Shannon Bray (L)
Michael Dublin (G)
|
| Change Research | 10/1–10/7 | 829 LV |
Roy Cooper (D)
Michael Whatley (R)
Shannon Bray (L)
Michael Dublin (G)
|
| East Carolina University | 9/30–10/3 | 810 LV |
Roy Cooper (D)
Michael Whatley (R)
Shannon Bray (L)
Michael Dublin (G)
|
| Big Data Poll | 9/27–9/29 | 642 LV |
Roy Cooper (D)
Michael Whatley (R)
Shannon Bray (L)
Michael Dublin (G)
|