Maine Senate race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
62% Dem
Rep 38%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Troy Jackson | 62% |
| Susan Collins | 39% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Troy Jackson | 64% |
| Susan Collins | 36% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 69% | 10/29/2026: 62% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 72% | 10/29/2026: 64% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 35% | 10/29/2026: 39% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 28% | 10/29/2026: 36% |
Poll average
13 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+2.0
Troy Jackson (D)
49.1%
Susan Collins (R)
47%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Susan Collins | Republican |
| Troy Jackson | Democrat |
Maine Senate race: polls over time
65 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Susan Collins 46.6%
Graham Platner 49.3%
Troy Jackson 49.1%
Janet Mills 37%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Susan Collins | 46.6% | 60 | 10/25/2026 |
| Graham Platner | 49.3% | 28 | 7/6/2026 |
| Troy Jackson | 49.1% | 25 | 10/25/2026 |
| Janet Mills | 37% | 16 | 7/7/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marist University | 10/22–10/25 | 1,449 LV |
Troy Jackson (D)
Susan Collins (R)
|
| Echelon Insights | 10/16–10/23 | 413 LV |
Troy Jackson (D)
Susan Collins (R)
|
| Trafalgar Group | 10/21–10/23 | 1,077 LV |
Susan Collins (R)
Troy Jackson (D)
|
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 10/16–10/20 | 1,514 LV |
Troy Jackson (D)
Susan Collins (R)
|
| InsiderAdvantage | 10/13–10/14 | 1,200 LV |
Troy Jackson (D)
Susan Collins (R)
|
| Suffolk University | 10/8–10/11 | 500 LV |
Troy Jackson (D)
Susan Collins (R)
|
| The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government | 9/30–10/5 | 800 LV |
Troy Jackson (D)
Susan Collins (R)
|
| Marist University | 10/1–10/4 | 1,505 RV |
Troy Jackson (D)
Susan Collins (R)
|
| Trafalgar Group | 9/29–10/1 | 1,091 LV |
Troy Jackson (D)
Susan Collins (R)
|
| Wedgewood Polls | 9/27–10/1 | 400 LV |
Troy Jackson (D)
Susan Collins (R)
|