Idaho Senate race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
<1% Dem
Rep 94%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | David Roth | <1% |
| Jim Risch | 95% | |
| Todd Achilles | 7% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Democrat | <1% |
| Jim Risch | 96% | |
| Todd Achilles | 4% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 4% | 10/28/2026: <1% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 8% | 10/28/2026: <1% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 94% | 10/28/2026: 95% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 91% | 10/28/2026: 96% |
Poll average
3 polls in the last 30 days of polling · —
James Risch (R)
50.7%
Todd Achilles (I)
31.3%
Natalie Fleming (I)
3%
Matt Loesby (L)
2%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Jim Risch | Republican |
| Matt Loesby | Libertarian |
| Natalie M Fleming | Independent |
| Todd Achilles | Independent |
Idaho Senate race: polls over time
9 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Todd Achilles 35%
James Risch 51.5%
Matt Loesby 2%
Natalie Fleming 3%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Achilles | 35% | 9 | 10/22/2026 |
| James Risch | 51.5% | 8 | 10/22/2026 |
| Matt Loesby | 2% | 6 | 10/15/2026 |
| Natalie Fleming | 3% | 5 | 10/15/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| VoteNexus | 10/21–10/22 | 700 LV |
James Risch (R)
Todd Achilles (I)
|
| Peak Insights | 10/13–10/15 | 500 LV |
James Risch (R)
Todd Achilles (I)
Natalie Fleming (I)
Matt Loesby (L)
|
| Peak Insights | 9/28–9/30 | 500 LV |
James Risch (R)
Todd Achilles (I)
Natalie Fleming (I)
Matt Loesby (L)
|
| Peak Insights | 8/11–8/13 | 500 LV |
James Risch (R)
Todd Achilles (I)
Natalie Fleming (I)
Matt Loesby (L)
|
| The Bullfinch Group | 8/4–8/7 | 608 LV |
Jim Risch
Todd Achilles (I)
Matt Loesby (L)
|
| Change Research | 7/28–7/30 | — LV |
James Risch (R)
Todd Achilles (I)
David Roth (D)
Natalie Fleming (I)
Matt Loesby (L)
|
| Peak Insights | 6/6–6/7 | 500 LV |
James Risch (R)
David Roth (D)
Todd Achilles (I)
Natalie Fleming (I)
Matt Loesby (L)
|
| The Bullfinch Group | 5/29–6/1 | 774 RV |
James Risch (R)
Todd Achilles (I)
David Roth (D)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 3/16–3/17 | 639 RV |
James Risch (R)
Todd Achilles (I)
|