Idaho Senate race 2026
Our 21-day average puts Todd Achilles at 35%, James Risch at 51.5%, Matt Loesby at 2%, Natalie Fleming at 3%, based on 9 polls ending between 3/17/2026 and 10/22/2026. Dots on the chart are individual polls; the line is the rolling average. How to read these numbers.
Idaho Senate race 2026 over time
9 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Todd Achilles 35%
James Risch 51.5%
Matt Loesby 2%
Natalie Fleming 3%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Achilles | 35% | 9 | 10/22/2026 |
| James Risch | 51.5% | 8 | 10/22/2026 |
| Matt Loesby | 2% | 6 | 10/15/2026 |
| Natalie Fleming | 3% | 5 | 10/15/2026 |
Average result
Unweighted mean across 9 matching polls
View data as table
| Choice | % |
|---|---|
| Todd Achilles | 24.4% |
| James Risch | 48.9% |
| Matt Loesby | 2.2% |
| Natalie Fleming | 4.6% |
| David Roth | 14.3% |
| Jim Risch | 34% |
Individual polls (9)
| End date | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/22/2026 |
VoteNexus
for Knock Every Door PAC |
700 LV |
James Risch (R)
Todd Achilles (I)
|
| 10/15/2026 | Peak Insights | 500 LV |
James Risch (R)
Todd Achilles (I)
Natalie Fleming (I)
Matt Loesby (L)
|
| 9/30/2026 | Peak Insights | 500 LV |
James Risch (R)
Todd Achilles (I)
Natalie Fleming (I)
Matt Loesby (L)
|
| 8/13/2026 | Peak Insights | 500 LV |
James Risch (R)
Todd Achilles (I)
Natalie Fleming (I)
Matt Loesby (L)
|
| 8/7/2026 | The Bullfinch Group | 608 LV |
Jim Risch
Todd Achilles (I)
Matt Loesby (L)
|
| 7/30/2026 | Change Research | — LV |
James Risch (R)
Todd Achilles (I)
David Roth (D)
Natalie Fleming (I)
Matt Loesby (L)
|
| 6/7/2026 | Peak Insights | 500 LV |
James Risch (R)
David Roth (D)
Todd Achilles (I)
Natalie Fleming (I)
Matt Loesby (L)
|
| 6/1/2026 | The Bullfinch Group | 774 RV |
James Risch (R)
Todd Achilles (I)
David Roth (D)
|
| 3/17/2026 | Public Policy Polling | 639 RV |
James Risch (R)
Todd Achilles (I)
|