Iowa Senate race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
45% Dem
Rep 55%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Josh Turek | 47% |
| Ashley Hinson | 55% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Josh Turek | 44% |
| Ashley Hinson | 56% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 40% | 10/28/2026: 47% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 40% | 10/28/2026: 44% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 59% | 10/28/2026: 55% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 60% | 10/28/2026: 56% |
Poll average
15 polls in the last 30 days of polling · Tied
Ashley Hinson (R)
46%
Josh Turek (D)
46%
Thomas Laehn (L)
3.5%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Ashley Hinson | Republican |
| Josh Turek | Democrat |
| Thomas Laehn | Libertarian |
Iowa Senate race: polls over time
44 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Josh Turek 45.5%
Ashley Hinson 45.6%
Thomas Laehn 4%
Zach Wahls 29%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Turek | 45.5% | 40 | 10/23/2026 |
| Ashley Hinson | 45.6% | 38 | 10/23/2026 |
| Thomas Laehn | 4% | 13 | 10/23/2026 |
| Zach Wahls | 29% | 9 | 5/21/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | 10/16–10/23 | 403 LV |
Josh Turek (D)
Ashley Hinson (R)
Thomas Laehn (L)
|
| InsiderAdvantage | 10/21–10/22 | 1,200 LV |
Ashley Hinson (R)
Josh Turek (D)
|
| co/efficient | 10/15–10/19 | 863 LV |
Ashley Hinson (R)
Josh Turek (D)
Thomas Laehn (L)
|
| Trafalgar Group | 10/13–10/15 | 1,094 LV |
Ashley Hinson (R)
Josh Turek (D)
Thomas Laehn (L)
|
| New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group | 10/9–10/13 | 602 LV |
Ashley Hinson (R)
Josh Turek (D)
Thomas Laehn (L)
|
| National Public Affairs | 10/8–10/12 | 678 LV |
Ashley Hinson (R)
Josh Turek (D)
Thomas Laehn (L)
|
| YouGov | 10/6–10/12 | 2,245 LV |
Ashley Hinson (R)
Josh Turek (D)
|
| Marist University | 10/8–10/11 | 1,100 LV |
Ashley Hinson (R)
Josh Turek (D)
|
| Emerson College | 10/5–10/6 | 650 LV |
Josh Turek (D)
Ashley Hinson (R)
Thomas Laehn (L)
|
| CNN/SSRS | 9/29–10/5 | 801 LV |
Ashley Hinson (R)
Josh Turek (D)
|