Arkansas Senate race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
5% Dem
Rep 95%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Hallie Shoffner | 6% |
| Tom Cotton | 95% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Hallie Shoffner | 5% |
| Tom Cotton | 95% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 3% | 10/28/2026: 6% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 6% | 10/28/2026: 5% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 98% | 10/28/2026: 95% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 93% | 10/28/2026: 95% |
Poll average
2 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+10.0
Tom Cotton (R)
50.5%
Hallie Shoffner (D)
40.5%
Jeff Wadlin (L)
4.5%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Tom Cotton | Republican |
| Hallie Shoffner | Democrat |
| Jeff Wadlin | Libertarian |
Arkansas Senate race: polls over time
6 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Hallie Shoffner 40.5%
Tom Cotton 50.5%
Jeff Wadlin 4.5%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hallie Shoffner | 40.5% | 6 | 10/13/2026 |
| Tom Cotton | 50.5% | 6 | 10/13/2026 |
| Jeff Wadlin | 4.5% | 4 | 10/13/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College | 10/8–10/13 | 709 LV |
Tom Cotton (R)
Hallie Shoffner (D)
Jeff Wadlin (L)
|
| Grayhouse | 9/30–10/4 | 550 LV |
Hallie Shoffner (D)
Tom Cotton (R)
Jeff Wadlin (L)
|
| J.L. Partners | 8/14–8/18 | 803 LV |
Tom Cotton (R)
Hallie Shoffner (D)
Jeff Wadlin (L)
|
| Hendrix College | 8/11–8/12 | 1,217 LV |
Hallie Shoffner (D)
Tom Cotton (R)
Jeff Wadlin (L)
|
| 2040 Strategy Group | 7/17–7/25 | 586 LV |
Tom Cotton (R)
Hallie Shoffner (D)
|
| GrayHouse | 2/7–2/9 | 550 LV |
Tom Cotton (R)
Hallie Shoffner (D)
|