VA-01 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
63% Dem
Rep 37%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Shannon Taylor | 62% |
| Rob Wittman | 39% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Shannon Taylor | 64% |
| Rob Wittman | 36% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 87% | 10/28/2026: 62% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 81% | 10/28/2026: 64% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 15% | 10/28/2026: 39% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 16% | 10/28/2026: 36% |
Poll average
3 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+1.0
Shannon Taylor (D)
48.3%
Robert Wittman (R)
47%
Rob Wittman
46%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Shannon Taylor | Democrat |
| Rob Wittman | Republican |
| Write-In | Other |
VA-01 House race: polls over time
5 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Shannon Taylor 47.5%
Rob Wittman 46%
Robert Wittman 47%
Dem 44%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Taylor | 47.5% | 4 | 10/25/2026 |
| Rob Wittman | 46% | 2 | 10/22/2026 |
| Robert Wittman | 47% | 2 | 10/25/2026 |
| Dem | 44% | 1 | 3/12/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting Team | 10/24–10/25 | 478 LV |
Shannon Taylor (D)
Robert Wittman (R)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 10/21–10/22 | 570 LV |
Rob Wittman
Shannon Taylor (D)
|
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | 9/23–9/28 | 609 LV |
Rob Wittman
Shannon Taylor (D)
|
| DCCC Targeting Team | 9/15–9/17 | 519 LV |
Robert Wittman (R)
Shannon Taylor (D)
|
| Ragnar Research Partners | 3/10–3/12 | 400 LV |
Rep
Dem
|
| Public Policy Polling | 8/8–8/9 | 541 RV |
Shannon Taylor (D)
Rob Wittman
|
| Public Policy Polling | 8/8–8/9 | 541 RV |
Rep
Dem
|