UT-04 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
3% Dem
Rep 97%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Jonny Larsen | 3% |
| Mike Kennedy | 95% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 8% | 10/28/2026: 3% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 90% | 10/28/2026: 95% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+8.8
Mike Kennedy (R)
41.7%
Jonny Larsen (D)
32.9%
Steven Burt (I)
5.7%
Taylor Wright (L)
5.3%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Mike Kennedy | Republican |
| Jonny Larsen | Democrat |
| Taylor Wright | Libertarian |
| Steven Burt | Other |
UT-04 House race: polls over time
1 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Jonny Larsen 32.9%
Mike Kennedy 41.7%
Steven Burt 5.7%
Taylor Wright 5.3%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonny Larsen | 32.9% | 1 | 9/17/2026 |
| Mike Kennedy | 41.7% | 1 | 9/17/2026 |
| Steven Burt | 5.7% | 1 | 9/17/2026 |
| Taylor Wright | 5.3% | 1 | 9/17/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lighthouse Research | 9/8–9/17 | 513 LV |
Mike Kennedy (R)
Jonny Larsen (D)
Taylor Wright (L)
Steven Burt (I)
|