TX-38 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
4% Dem
Rep 96%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Melissa McDonough | 4% |
| Jon Bonck | 96% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 18% | 10/28/2026: 4% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 82% | 10/28/2026: 96% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · —
Jon Bonck (R)
22%
Shelly deZevallos (R)
10%
Michael Pratt (R)
8%
Carmen María Montiel (R)
3%
Larry Rubin (R)
3%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Jon Bonck | Republican |
| Melissa McDonough | Democrat |
| Alex McMenemy | Green |
TX-38 House race: polls over time
1 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Carmen María Montiel 3%
Jon Bonck 22%
Larry Rubin 3%
Michael Pratt 8%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen María Montiel | 3% | 1 | 2/10/2026 |
| Jon Bonck | 22% | 1 | 2/10/2026 |
| Larry Rubin | 3% | 1 | 2/10/2026 |
| Michael Pratt | 8% | 1 | 2/10/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs | 2/3–2/10 | 800 RV |
Jon Bonck (R)
Shelly deZevallos (R)
Michael Pratt (R)
Carmen María Montiel (R)
Larry Rubin (R)
|