TX-28 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
93% Dem
Rep 7%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Henry Cuellar | 93% |
| Tano Tijerina | 7% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Henry Cuellar | 93% |
| Tano Tijerina | 7% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 72% | 10/29/2026: 93% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 67% | 10/29/2026: 93% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/3/2026: 28% | 10/29/2026: 7% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 32% | 10/29/2026: 7% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+20.0
Henry Cuellar (D)
54%
Tano Tijerina (R)
34%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Henry Cuellar | Democrat |
| Tano Tijerina | Republican |
| Marlón Durán | Green |
TX-28 House race: polls over time
4 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Henry Cuellar 54%
Tano Tijerina 34%
Marlon Duran 6%
Marlón Durán 6%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cuellar | 54% | 4 | 10/13/2026 |
| Tano Tijerina | 34% | 4 | 10/13/2026 |
| Marlon Duran | 6% | 1 | 8/22/2026 |
| Marlón Durán | 6% | 1 | 7/30/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 10/7–10/13 | 563 LV |
Henry Cuellar (D)
Tano Tijerina (R)
|
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 8/18–8/22 | 600 LV |
Henry Cuellar (D)
Tano Tijerina (R)
Marlon Duran (G)
|
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 7/27–7/30 | 600 LV |
Henry Cuellar (D)
Tano Tijerina (R)
Marlón Durán
|
| Pulse Decision Science | 6/21–6/23 | 400 LV |
Tano Tijerina (R)
Henry Cuellar (D)
|