TX-23 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
41% Dem
Rep 59%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Katy Padilla Stout | 41% |
| Brandon Herrera | 58% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 33% | 10/28/2026: 41% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 64% | 10/28/2026: 58% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · Tied
Brandon Herrera (R)
46%
Katy Padilla Stout (D)
46%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Katy Padilla Stout | Democrat |
| Brandon Herrera | Republican |
| Ben Mendoza | Independent |
TX-23 House race: polls over time
7 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Brandon Herrera 46%
Katy Padilla Stout 46%
Tony Gonzales 21%
Dem 45%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Herrera | 46% | 6 | 10/7/2026 |
| Katy Padilla Stout | 46% | 3 | 10/7/2026 |
| Tony Gonzales | 21% | 3 | 2/20/2026 |
| Dem | 45% | 1 | 3/11/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 10/5–10/7 | 400 LV |
Brandon Herrera (R)
Katy Padilla Stout (D)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 3/10–3/11 | 521 A |
Brandon Herrera (R)
Katy Padilla Stout (D)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 3/10–3/11 | 521 RV |
Brandon Herrera (R)
Katy Padilla Stout (D)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 3/10–3/11 | 521 RV |
Rep
Dem
|
| Political Intelligence | 2/18–2/20 | 543 LV |
Brandon Herrera (R)
Tony Gonzales (R)
Francisco Canseco (R)
Keith Barton (R)
|
| Political Intelligence | 12/17–12/22 | 422 LV |
Brandon Herrera (R)
Tony Gonzales (R)
|
| Trafalgar Group | 10/31–11/1 | 605 LV |
Tony Gonzales (R)
Brandon Herrera (R)
|