TX-09 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
23% Dem
Rep 77%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Leticia Gutierrez | 23% |
| Alex Mealer | 77% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Leticia Gutierrez | 23% |
| Alex Mealer | 76% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 27% | 10/28/2026: 23% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 28% | 10/28/2026: 23% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/4/2026: 71% | 10/28/2026: 77% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 72% | 10/28/2026: 76% |
Poll average
2 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+3.5
Alex Mealer (R)
48%
Leticia Gutierrez (D)
44.5%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Leticia Gutierrez | Democrat |
| Alex Mealer | Republican |
TX-09 House race: polls over time
6 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Alex Mealer 48%
Leticia Gutierrez 44.5%
Briscoe Cain 25.5%
Dan Mims 8%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Mealer | 48% | 5 | 10/22/2026 |
| Leticia Gutierrez | 44.5% | 4 | 10/22/2026 |
| Briscoe Cain | 25.5% | 2 | 2/11/2026 |
| Dan Mims | 8% | 2 | 2/11/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting Team | 10/20–10/22 | 490 LV |
Alex Mealer (R)
Leticia Gutierrez (D)
|
| University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs | 10/3–10/7 | 677 LV |
Alex Mealer (R)
Leticia Gutierrez (D)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 9/18–9/19 | 560 RV |
Alex Mealer (R)
Leticia Gutierrez (D)
|
| Pulse Decision Science | 2/9–2/11 | 400 LV |
Alex Mealer (R)
Briscoe Cain (R)
Dan Mims (R)
Steve Stockman (R)
Dwayne Stovall (R)
|
| University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs | 2/3–2/10 | 400 LV |
Alex Mealer (R)
Briscoe Cain (R)
Dan Mims (R)
Dwayne Stovall (R)
Steve Stockman (R)
|
| University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs | 2/3–2/10 | 400 LV |
Leticia Gutierrez (D)
Earnest Clayton (D)
Terry Virts (D)
Marty Rocha (D)
Todd Ivey (D)
Peter Filler (D)
|
| McLaughlin & Associates | 10/20–10/22 | 400 LV |
Briscoe Cain (R)
Alex Mealer (R)
Dwayne Stovall (R)
Dan Mims (R)
Peter Van Emmert (R)
Alexandria Butler (R)
Deddrick Wilmer (R)
|