TN-05 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
8% Dem
Rep 92%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Chaz Molder | 8% |
| Charlie Hatcher | 92% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 20% | 10/28/2026: 8% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 76% | 10/28/2026: 92% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+5.0
Charlie Hatcher (R)
46%
Chaz Molder (D)
41%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Charlie Hatcher | Republican |
| Chaz Molder | Democrat |
TN-05 House race: polls over time
3 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Chaz Molder 41%
Charlie Hatcher 46%
Andy Ogles 47%
James Johnson 1%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chaz Molder | 41% | 3 | 10/1/2026 |
| Charlie Hatcher | 46% | 2 | 10/1/2026 |
| Andy Ogles | 47% | 1 | 5/13/2026 |
| James Johnson | 1% | 1 | 8/24/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 9/28–10/1 | 552 LV |
Charlie Hatcher (R)
Chaz Molder (D)
|
| Impact Research | 8/19–8/24 | 500 LV |
Charlie Hatcher (R)
Chaz Molder (D)
James Johnson (I)
Micheál O'Leary (I)
|
| Impact Research | 5/11–5/13 | 558 LV |
Andy Ogles (R)
Chaz Molder (D)
|