PA-08 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
86% Dem
Rep 14%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Paige Cognetti | 86% |
| Rob Bresnahan | 15% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Paige Cognetti | 86% |
| Rob Bresnahan | 14% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 58% | 10/28/2026: 86% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 57% | 10/28/2026: 86% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 44% | 10/28/2026: 15% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 42% | 10/28/2026: 14% |
Poll average
2 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+4.1
Paige Cognetti (D)
51.3%
Rob Bresnahan
48%
Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R)
46.5%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Paige Cognetti | Democrat |
| Rob Bresnahan | Republican |
PA-08 House race: polls over time
4 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Paige Cognetti 51.3%
Rob Bresnahan 48%
Rob Bresnahan Jr. 46.5%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paige Cognetti | 51.3% | 4 | 10/22/2026 |
| Rob Bresnahan | 48% | 2 | 10/14/2026 |
| Rob Bresnahan Jr. | 46.5% | 2 | 10/22/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | 10/16–10/22 | 402 LV |
Paige Cognetti (D)
Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R)
|
| Emerson College | 10/12–10/14 | 396 LV |
Paige Cognetti (D)
Rob Bresnahan
|
| Lake Research Partners | 6/18–6/23 | 400 LV |
Paige Cognetti (D)
Rob Bresnahan
|
| Impact Research | 6/8–6/11 | 500 LV |
Paige Cognetti (D)
Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 8/27–8/28 | 615 RV |
Paige Cognetti (D)
Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R)
|