OH-15 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
37% Dem
Rep 63%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Don Leonard | 37% |
| Mike Carey | 62% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 31% | 10/28/2026: 37% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 70% | 10/28/2026: 62% |
Poll average
2 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+2.0
Don Leonard (D)
47%
Mike Carey (R)
45%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Brennan Barrington | Libertarian |
| Mike Carey | Republican |
| Gary Josephson | Other |
| Don Leonard | Democrat |
| Samuel Ronan | Other |
OH-15 House race: polls over time
4 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Don Leonard 47%
Mike Carey 45%
Brennan Barrington 10%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Don Leonard | 47% | 4 | 10/12/2026 |
| Mike Carey | 45% | 4 | 10/12/2026 |
| Brennan Barrington | 10% | 2 | 8/9/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research Associates | 10/9–10/12 | 503 LV |
Mike Carey (R)
Don Leonard (D)
|
| Hart Research Associates | 9/22–9/24 | 500 LV |
Mike Carey (R)
Don Leonard (D)
|
| Hart Research Associates | 8/6–8/9 | 401 LV |
Mike Carey (R)
Don Leonard (D)
Brennan Barrington (L)
|
| Hart Research Associates | 6/23–6/25 | 550 LV |
Mike Carey (R)
Don Leonard (D)
Brennan Barrington (L)
|