NY-21 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
34% Dem
Rep 66%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Blake Gendebien | 34% |
| Anthony Constantino | 66% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 30% | 10/28/2026: 34% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 60% | 10/28/2026: 66% |
Poll average
3 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+0.3
Anthony Constantino (R)
45.3%
Blake Gendebien (D)
45%
Christopher Schmidt
5%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Blake Gendebien | Democrat |
| Anthony Constantino | Republican |
NY-21 House race: polls over time
9 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Anthony Constantino 45.3%
Blake Gendebien 45%
Robert Smullen 43%
Chris Schmidt 5%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Constantino | 45.3% | 9 | 10/13/2026 |
| Blake Gendebien | 45% | 7 | 10/13/2026 |
| Robert Smullen | 43% | 2 | 4/16/2026 |
| Chris Schmidt | 5% | 1 | 8/8/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 10/12–10/13 | 613 LV |
Anthony Constantino (R)
Blake Gendebien (D)
|
| Siena University | 9/30–10/6 | 496 LV |
Blake Gendebien (D)
Anthony Constantino (R)
Christopher Schmidt
|
| Impact Research | 9/29–10/4 | 500 LV |
Anthony Constantino (R)
Blake Gendebien (D)
|
| Impact Research | 8/30–9/2 | 500 LV |
Anthony Constantino (R)
Blake Gendebien (D)
|
| J.L. Partners | 8/15–8/17 | 500 LV |
Anthony Constantino (R)
Blake Gendebien (D)
|
| SurveyUSA | 8/4–8/8 | 800 A |
Anthony Constantino (R)
Blake Gendebien (D)
Chris Schmidt (I)
|
| Impact Research | 5/26–5/31 | 500 LV |
Anthony Constantino (R)
Blake Gendebien (D)
|
| McLaughlin & Associates | 4/14–4/16 | 300 LV |
Robert Smullen (R)
Anthony Constantino (R)
|
| GrayHouse | 2/11–2/12 | 500 LV |
Anthony Constantino (R)
Robert Smullen (R)
|