NY-18 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
96% Dem
Rep 4%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Pat Ryan | 98% |
| Jacqueline Auringer | 5% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Pat Ryan | 96% |
| Jacqueline Auringer | 4% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/3/2026: 88% | 10/29/2026: 98% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 85% | 10/29/2026: 96% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/3/2026: 10% | 10/29/2026: 5% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 6% | 10/29/2026: 4% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+17.0
Pat Ryan (D)
52%
Jackie Auringer (R)
35%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Pat Ryan | Democrat |
| Jacqueline Auringer | Republican |
NY-18 House race: polls over time
2 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Dem 42%
Jackie Auringer 35%
Pat Ryan 52%
Rep 35%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dem | 42% | 1 | 2/17/2026 |
| Jackie Auringer | 35% | 1 | 9/30/2026 |
| Pat Ryan | 52% | 1 | 9/30/2026 |
| Rep | 35% | 1 | 2/17/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 9/29–9/30 | 561 RV |
Pat Ryan (D)
Jackie Auringer (R)
|
| Impact Research | 2/9–2/17 | 500 LV |
Rep
Dem
|