NY-15 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
95% Dem
Rep 5%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Ritchie Torres | 82% |
| Stylo Sapaskis | 4% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 94% | 10/29/2026: 82% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 6% | 10/29/2026: 4% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · —
Ritchie Torres (D)
60%
Michael Blake (D)
15%
Jose Vega (D)
7%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Ritchie Torres | Democrat |
| Stylo Sapaskis | Republican |
| Gonzalo Duran | Other |
| Andre Easton | Other |
| Jose Vega | Independent |
NY-15 House race: polls over time
1 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Jose Vega 7%
Michael Blake 15%
Ritchie Torres 60%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Vega | 7% | 1 | 5/10/2026 |
| Michael Blake | 15% | 1 | 5/10/2026 |
| Ritchie Torres | 60% | 1 | 5/10/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braun Research | 4/28–5/10 | — LV |
Ritchie Torres (D)
Michael Blake (D)
Jose Vega (D)
|