NM-03 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
97% Dem
Rep 3%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Teresa Leger Fernández | 97% |
| Martin Zamora | 3% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 90% | 10/29/2026: 97% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 10% | 10/29/2026: 3% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · —
Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)
53%
Martin Zamora
39%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Martin Zamora | Republican |
| Teresa Leger Fernandez | Democrat |
NM-03 House race: polls over time
1 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Martin Zamora 39%
Teresa Leger Fernandez 53%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Zamora | 39% | 1 | 10/9/2026 |
| Teresa Leger Fernandez | 53% | 1 | 10/9/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 10/1–10/9 | 362 LV |
Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)
Martin Zamora
|