NM-02 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
92% Dem
Rep 8%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Gabe Vasquez | 93% |
| Greg Cunningham | 8% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Gabe Vasquez | 92% |
| Greg Cunningham | 7% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/5/2026: 74% | 10/29/2026: 93% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 76% | 10/29/2026: 92% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/4/2026: 26% | 10/29/2026: 8% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 22% | 10/29/2026: 7% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+4.0
Gabriel Vasquez (D)
48%
Greg Cunningham (R)
44%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Greg Cunningham | Republican |
| Gabe Vasquez | Democrat |
NM-02 House race: polls over time
3 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Greg Cunningham 44%
Gabriel Vasquez 48%
Gabe Vasquez 46%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Cunningham | 44% | 3 | 10/9/2026 |
| Gabriel Vasquez | 48% | 2 | 10/9/2026 |
| Gabe Vasquez | 46% | 1 | 9/2/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 10/1–10/9 | 383 LV |
Gabriel Vasquez (D)
Greg Cunningham (R)
|
| SurveyUSA | 8/28–9/2 | 554 LV |
Gabe Vasquez
Greg Cunningham (R)
|
| co/efficient | 4/26–4/28 | 879 LV |
Gabriel Vasquez (D)
Greg Cunningham (R)
|