NC-03 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
40% Dem
Rep 60%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Raymond Smith Jr. | 39% |
| Greg Murphy | 60% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 13% | 10/29/2026: 39% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 84% | 10/29/2026: 60% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+3.0
Greg Murphy (R)
44%
Raymond Smith Jr. (D)
41%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Greg Murphy | Republican |
| Raymond Smith Jr. | Democrat |
| Daniel Cavender | Libertarian |
NC-03 House race: polls over time
1 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Greg Murphy 44%
Raymond Smith Jr. 41%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Murphy | 44% | 1 | 8/2/2026 |
| Raymond Smith Jr. | 41% | 1 | 8/2/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research | 7/27–8/2 | — LV |
Greg Murphy (R)
Raymond Smith Jr. (D)
|