MT-02 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
2% Dem
Rep 98%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Brian Miller | 2% |
| Troy Downing | 98% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 6% | 10/29/2026: 2% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 92% | 10/29/2026: 98% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+22.0
Troy Downing (R)
48%
Brian Miller (D)
26%
Michael Eisenhauer (I)
9%
Patrick McCracken (L)
5%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Troy Downing | Republican |
| Brian Miller | Democrat |
| Patrick McCracken | Libertarian |
| Michael Eisenhauer | Independent |
MT-02 House race: polls over time
1 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Brian Miller 26%
Michael Eisenhauer 9%
Patrick McCracken 5%
Troy Downing 48%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Miller | 26% | 1 | 9/7/2026 |
| Michael Eisenhauer | 9% | 1 | 9/7/2026 |
| Patrick McCracken | 5% | 1 | 9/7/2026 |
| Troy Downing | 48% | 1 | 9/7/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers-Eagleton | 8/27–9/7 | — RV |
Troy Downing (R)
Brian Miller (D)
Michael Eisenhauer (I)
Patrick McCracken (L)
|