MO-02 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
37% Dem
Rep 63%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Fred Wellman | 37% |
| Ann Wagner | 62% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 20% | 10/29/2026: 37% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 78% | 10/29/2026: 62% |
Poll average
2 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+3.0
Fred Wellman (D)
48.5%
Ann Wagner (R)
45.5%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Ann Wagner | Republican |
| Fred Wellman | Democrat |
| Brandon Coulter Daugherty | Libertarian |
MO-02 House race: polls over time
3 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Ann Wagner 45.5%
Fred Wellman 48.5%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ann Wagner | 45.5% | 3 | 10/20/2026 |
| Fred Wellman | 48.5% | 3 | 10/20/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 10/19–10/20 | 631 LV |
Ann Wagner (R)
Fred Wellman (D)
|
| Emerson College | 10/12–10/14 | 401 LV |
Ann Wagner (R)
Fred Wellman (D)
|
| Remington Research Group | 9/14–9/15 | 565 LV |
Ann Wagner (R)
Fred Wellman (D)
|