MN-01 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
38% Dem
Rep 62%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Jake Johnson | 38% |
| Brad Finstad | 62% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 37% | 10/29/2026: 38% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 58% | 10/29/2026: 62% |
Poll average
4 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+1.2
Jake Johnson (D)
45.5%
Brad Finstad (R)
44.2%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Jake Johnson | Democrat |
| Brad Finstad | Republican |
| Write-in | Other |
MN-01 House race: polls over time
6 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Brad Finstad 43.7%
Jake Johnson 45%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Finstad | 43.7% | 6 | 10/14/2026 |
| Jake Johnson | 45% | 6 | 10/14/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 10/13–10/14 | 588 LV |
Brad Finstad (R)
Jake Johnson (D)
|
| SurveyUSA | 10/4–10/12 | 565 LV |
Jake Johnson (D)
Brad Finstad (R)
|
| SurveyUSA | 10/4–10/9 | 565 LV |
Brad Finstad (R)
Jake Johnson (D)
|
| GBAO Strategies | 9/18–9/21 | 500 LV |
Brad Finstad (R)
Jake Johnson (D)
|
| Ragnar Research Partners | 3/12–3/14 | 400 LV |
Brad Finstad (R)
Jake Johnson (D)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 2/2–2/3 | 708 RV |
Brad Finstad (R)
Jake Johnson (D)
|