ME-02 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
44% Dem
Rep 56%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Matt Dunlap | 44% |
| Paul LePage | 58% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Matthew Dunlap | 44% |
| Paul LePage | 56% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 50% | 10/28/2026: 44% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 7/21/2026: 28% | 10/28/2026: 44% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 51% | 10/28/2026: 58% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 7/21/2026: 58% | 10/28/2026: 56% |
Poll average
3 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+4.0
Matt Dunlap (D)
50.3%
Paul LePage (R)
46.3%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Matthew Dunlap | Democrat |
| Paul LePage | Republican |
ME-02 House race: polls over time
15 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Paul LePage 47%
Matt Dunlap 50%
Joe Baldacci 44%
Jordan Wood 15%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul LePage | 47% | 12 | 10/14/2026 |
| Matt Dunlap | 50% | 11 | 10/14/2026 |
| Joe Baldacci | 44% | 5 | 5/18/2026 |
| Jordan Wood | 15% | 4 | 5/18/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research | 10/12–10/14 | 500 LV |
Matt Dunlap (D)
Paul LePage (R)
|
| Tulchin Research | 9/27–9/30 | 500 LV |
Matt Dunlap (D)
Paul LePage (R)
|
| University of New Hampshire | 9/17–9/21 | 622 LV |
Matt Dunlap (D)
Paul LePage (R)
|
| DCCC Targeting Team | 8/11–8/13 | 621 LV |
Paul LePage (R)
Matt Dunlap (D)
|
| Tulchin Research | 7/11–7/16 | 600 LV |
Matt Dunlap (D)
Paul LePage (R)
|
| Pan Atlantic SMS Group | 5/8–5/18 | 418 LV |
Joe Baldacci (D)
Paul LePage (R)
|
| Pan Atlantic SMS Group | 5/8–5/18 | 169 LV |
Joe Baldacci (D)
Matt Dunlap (D)
Jordan Wood (D)
|
| co/efficient | 4/25–4/29 | 918 LV |
Matt Dunlap (D)
Paul LePage (R)
|
| Tulchin Research | 3/5–3/8 | 400 LV |
Matt Dunlap (D)
Joe Baldacci (D)
|
| Pan Atlantic SMS Group | 2/13–3/2 | 144 LV |
Joe Baldacci (D)
Matt Dunlap (D)
Jordan Wood (D)
|