ME-02 House race 2026
Our 21-day average puts Paul LePage at 47%, Matt Dunlap at 50%, Joe Baldacci at 44%, Jared Golden at 44%, based on 20 polls ending between 2/16/2025 and 10/14/2026. Dots on the chart are individual polls; the line is the rolling average. How to read these numbers.
ME-02 House race 2026 over time
20 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Paul LePage 47%
Matt Dunlap 50%
Joe Baldacci 44%
Jared Golden 44%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul LePage | 47% | 17 | 10/14/2026 |
| Matt Dunlap | 50% | 11 | 10/14/2026 |
| Joe Baldacci | 44% | 6 | 5/18/2026 |
| Jared Golden | 44% | 4 | 10/21/2025 |
Average result
Unweighted mean across 20 matching polls
View data as table
| Choice | % |
|---|---|
| Paul LePage | 47.2% |
| Matt Dunlap | 42.5% |
| Joe Baldacci | 42.8% |
| Jared Golden | 44.5% |
| Jordan Wood | 29% |
Individual polls (20)
| End date | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/14/2026 | Tulchin Research | 500 LV |
Matt Dunlap (D)
Paul LePage (R)
|
| 9/30/2026 | Tulchin Research | 500 LV |
Matt Dunlap (D)
Paul LePage (R)
|
| 9/21/2026 | University of New Hampshire | 622 LV |
Matt Dunlap (D)
Paul LePage (R)
|
| 8/13/2026 | DCCC Targeting Team | 621 LV |
Paul LePage (R)
Matt Dunlap (D)
|
| 7/16/2026 | Tulchin Research | 600 LV |
Matt Dunlap (D)
Paul LePage (R)
|
| 5/18/2026 | Pan Atlantic SMS Group | 418 LV |
Joe Baldacci (D)
Paul LePage (R)
|
| 5/18/2026 | Pan Atlantic SMS Group | 169 LV |
Joe Baldacci (D)
Matt Dunlap (D)
Jordan Wood (D)
|
| 4/29/2026 |
co/efficient
for NRCC |
918 LV |
Matt Dunlap (D)
Paul LePage (R)
|
| 3/8/2026 | Tulchin Research | 400 LV |
Matt Dunlap (D)
Joe Baldacci (D)
|
| 3/2/2026 | Pan Atlantic SMS Group | 144 LV |
Joe Baldacci (D)
Matt Dunlap (D)
Jordan Wood (D)
|
| 2/27/2026 | Upswing Research | 403 LV |
Paul LePage (R)
Jordan Wood (D)
|
| 2/16/2026 | University of New Hampshire | 521 LV |
Matt Dunlap (D)
Paul LePage (R)
|
| 2/16/2026 | University of New Hampshire | 521 LV |
Jordan Wood (D)
Paul LePage (R)
|
| 2/16/2026 | University of New Hampshire | 522 LV |
Matt Dunlap (D)
Paul LePage (R)
|
| 12/7/2025 |
Pan Atlantic Research
for Joe Baldacci |
387 LV |
Joe Baldacci (D)
Paul LePage (R)
|
| 10/21/2025 | University of New Hampshire | 521 LV |
Paul LePage (R)
Jared Golden (D)
|
| 6/23/2025 | University of New Hampshire | 394 A |
Paul LePage (R)
Jared Golden (D)
|
| 6/10/2025 | Mellman Group | 400 LV |
Jared Golden (D)
Paul LePage (R)
|
| 4/15/2025 |
Ragnar Research Partners
for Congressional Leadership Fund |
400 LV |
Paul LePage (R)
Jared Golden (D)
|
| 2/16/2025 | University of New Hampshire | 520 LV |
Joe Baldacci (D)
Paul LePage (R)
|