MD-05 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
97% Dem
Rep 3%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Adrian Boafo | 97% |
| Chris Chaffee | 3% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 92% | 10/29/2026: 97% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 6% | 10/29/2026: 3% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · —
Adrian Boafo (D)
17%
Quincy Bareebe (D)
10%
Rushern Baker (D)
10%
Harry Dunn (D)
5%
Wala Blegay (D)
5%
Harry Jarin (D)
1%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Adrian Boafo | Democrat |
| Chris Chaffee | Republican |
MD-05 House race: polls over time
2 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Adrian Boafo 17%
Harry Dunn 5%
Harry Jarin 1%
Quincy Bareebe 10%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Boafo | 17% | 2 | 5/28/2026 |
| Harry Dunn | 5% | 2 | 5/28/2026 |
| Harry Jarin | 1% | 2 | 5/28/2026 |
| Quincy Bareebe | 10% | 2 | 5/28/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 5/26–5/28 | 526 RV |
Adrian Boafo (D)
Quincy Bareebe (D)
Rushern Baker (D)
Harry Dunn (D)
Wala Blegay (D)
Harry Jarin (D)
|
| GQR | 2/26–3/1 | 1,400 LV |
Rushern Baker (D)
Harry Dunn (D)
Wala Blegay (D)
Nicole Williams (D)
Quincy Bareebe (D)
Arthur Ellis (D)
Adrian Boafo (D)
Harry Jarin (D)
|