IN-05 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
18% Dem
Rep 82%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | J. D. Ford | 18% |
| Victoria Spartz | 82% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 17% | 10/29/2026: 18% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 78% | 10/29/2026: 82% |
Poll average
2 polls in the last 30 days of polling · —
Victoria Spartz (R)
47.7%
JD Ford
45.8%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| J. D. Ford | Democrat |
| Victoria Spartz | Republican |
IN-05 House race: polls over time
3 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Victoria Spartz 47.7%
JD Ford 45.8%
J.D. Ford 46%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria Spartz | 47.7% | 3 | 10/22/2026 |
| JD Ford | 45.8% | 2 | 10/22/2026 |
| J.D. Ford | 46% | 1 | 7/20/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | 10/21–10/22 | 601 LV |
Victoria Spartz (R)
JD Ford
|
| Expedition Strategies | 9/30–10/4 | 600 LV |
Victoria Spartz (R)
JD Ford
|
| Impact Research | 7/16–7/20 | — LV |
Victoria Spartz (R)
J.D. Ford (D)
|