IL-04 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
>99% Dem
Rep <1%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Patty Garcia | 96% |
| Lupe Castillo | <1% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 93% | 10/29/2026: 96% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 5% | 10/29/2026: <1% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+19.0
Patty Garcia (D)
34%
Lupe Castillo (R)
15%
Chris Getty (I)
9%
Ed Hershey (O)
4%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Patty Garcia | Democrat |
| Lupe Castillo | Republican |
| Ed Hershey | Other |
| Chris Getty | Independent |
IL-04 House race: polls over time
1 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Chris Getty 9%
Ed Hershey 4%
Lupe Castillo 15%
Patty Garcia 34%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Getty | 9% | 1 | 8/4/2026 |
| Ed Hershey | 4% | 1 | 8/4/2026 |
| Lupe Castillo | 15% | 1 | 8/4/2026 |
| Patty Garcia | 34% | 1 | 8/4/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group | 7/31–8/4 | 653 RV |
Patty Garcia (D)
Lupe Castillo (R)
Chris Getty (I)
Ed Hershey (O)
|