ID-02 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
2% Dem
Rep 98%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Ellie Gilbreath | 2% |
| Mike Simpson | 96% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 8% | 10/29/2026: 2% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 92% | 10/29/2026: 96% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+15.0
Mike Simpson (R)
46%
Ellie Gilbreath (D)
31%
Tripp Hutchinson (I)
5%
Emre Houser (I)
5%
Will Johanson (L)
2%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Ellie Gilbreath | Democrat |
| Mike Simpson | Republican |
| Will Johanson | Libertarian |
| Emre Houser | Independent |
| Tripp Hutchinson | Independent |
ID-02 House race: polls over time
1 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Ellie Gilbreath 31%
Emre Houser 5%
Mike Simpson 46%
Tripp Hutchinson 5%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ellie Gilbreath | 31% | 1 | 10/22/2026 |
| Emre Houser | 5% | 1 | 10/22/2026 |
| Mike Simpson | 46% | 1 | 10/22/2026 |
| Tripp Hutchinson | 5% | 1 | 10/22/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| VoteNexus | 10/21–10/22 | — LV |
Mike Simpson (R)
Ellie Gilbreath (D)
Tripp Hutchinson (I)
Emre Houser (I)
Will Johanson (L)
|