FL-09 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
31% Dem
Rep 69%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Darren Soto | 30% |
| Dan Green | 68% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 34% | 10/29/2026: 30% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 55% | 10/29/2026: 68% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · Tied
Dan Green (R)
44%
Darren Soto (D)
44%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Dan Green | Republican |
| Darren Soto | Democrat |
FL-09 House race: polls over time
3 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Dan Green 44%
Darren Soto 44%
Ben Butler 13.8%
Jorge Martinez 14.2%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Green | 44% | 3 | 10/15/2026 |
| Darren Soto | 44% | 2 | 10/15/2026 |
| Ben Butler | 13.8% | 1 | 8/6/2026 |
| Jorge Martinez | 14.2% | 1 | 8/6/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA Polling | 10/13–10/15 | — LV |
Dan Green (R)
Darren Soto (D)
|
| SEA Polling | 8/24–8/30 | 400 LV |
Dan Green (R)
Darren Soto (D)
|
| Victory Insights | 8/4–8/6 | — LV |
Jorge Martinez (R)
Ben Butler (R)
Thomas Chalifoux (R)
Dan Green (R)
Justin Story (R)
Marcus Carter (R)
Steve Rance (R)
|