FL-07 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
25% Dem
Rep 75%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Bale Dalton | 25% |
| Ryan Elijah | 74% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 24% | 10/29/2026: 25% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 76% | 10/29/2026: 74% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · Tied
Bale Dalton (D)
45%
Ryan Elijah (R)
45%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Bale Dalton | Democrat |
| Ryan Elijah | Republican |
| Christopher Dennison | Libertarian |
FL-07 House race: polls over time
5 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Cory Mills 28.3%
Ryan Elijah 45%
Bale Dalton 45%
Michael Don Johnson 5.3%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Mills | 28.3% | 4 | 8/15/2026 |
| Ryan Elijah | 45% | 4 | 10/19/2026 |
| Bale Dalton | 45% | 2 | 10/19/2026 |
| Michael Don Johnson | 5.3% | 2 | 8/6/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 10/17–10/19 | 414 LV |
Bale Dalton (D)
Ryan Elijah (R)
|
| Capital Strategic Partners | 8/14–8/15 | 901 LV |
Ryan Elijah (R)
Cory Mills (R)
|
| Victory Insights | 8/4–8/6 | — LV |
Cory Mills (R)
Ryan Elijah (R)
Sarah Ulrich (R)
Michael Don Johnson (R)
|
| St. Pete Polls | 8/3–8/4 | 304 LV |
Cory Mills (R)
Ryan Elijah (R)
Sarah Ulrich (R)
Michael Don Johnson (R)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 5/20–5/21 | 570 RV |
Bale Dalton (D)
Cory Mills (R)
|