FL-02 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
8% Dem
Rep 92%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Amanda Green | 8% |
| Austin Rogers | 92% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 18% | 10/28/2026: 8% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 82% | 10/28/2026: 92% |
Poll average
6 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+19.4
Keith Gross (R)
26%
Austin Rogers (R)
22.9%
Evan Power (R)
10.6%
Jim Norton (R)
8.8%
Luke Murphy (R)
7.4%
Audie Rowell (R)
2.6%
Nicholas Lewis (R)
1%
Lee Jones (R)
0.9%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Amanda Green | Democrat |
| Austin Rogers | Republican |
FL-02 House race: polls over time
9 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Keith Gross 26.9%
Evan Power 11.5%
Audie Rowell 2.8%
Austin Rogers 23.9%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Gross | 26.9% | 9 | 8/11/2026 |
| Evan Power | 11.5% | 8 | 8/11/2026 |
| Audie Rowell | 2.8% | 7 | 8/11/2026 |
| Austin Rogers | 23.9% | 7 | 8/11/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | 8/10–8/11 | 603 LV |
Austin Rogers (R)
Evan Power (R)
Luke Murphy (R)
Jim Norton (R)
Keith Gross (R)
Audie Rowell (R)
Lee Jones (R)
|
| Victory Insights | 8/4–8/6 | — LV |
Austin Rogers (R)
Keith Gross (R)
Evan Power (R)
Jim Norton (R)
Luke Murphy (R)
Audie Rowell (R)
Lee Jones (R)
|
| Cygnal Political | 8/3–8/3 | 400 LV |
Keith Gross (R)
Austin Rogers (R)
Jim Norton (R)
Evan Power (R)
Luke Murphy (R)
Audie Rowell (R)
Nicholas Lewis (R)
Lee Jones (R)
|
| Guidant Polling and Strategy | 7/29–7/31 | 400 LV |
Austin Rogers (R)
Keith Gross (R)
Evan Power (R)
Jim Norton (R)
Luke Murphy (R)
Audie Rowell (R)
Lee Jones (R)
Nicholas Lewis (R)
|
| Patriot Polling | 7/22–7/26 | 922 LV |
Keith Gross (R)
Nicholas Zateslo (D)
|
| co/efficient | 7/14–7/16 | 624 LV |
Keith Gross (R)
Austin Rogers (R)
Jim Norton (R)
Evan Power (R)
Luke Murphy (R)
Audie Rowell (R)
Nicholas Lewis (R)
Lee Jones (R)
|
| co/efficient | 6/23–6/24 | 692 LV |
Keith Gross (R)
Austin Rogers (R)
Jim Norton (R)
Evan Power (R)
Luke Murphy (R)
Audie Rowell (R)
Nicholas Lewis (R)
Lee Jones (R)
|
| Guidant Polling and Strategy | 3/9–3/11 | 400 LV |
Keith Gross (R)
Jim Norton (R)
Evan Power (R)
Austin Rogers (R)
Audie Rowell (R)
Luke Murphy (R)
Nicholas Lewis (R)
Lee Jones (R)
|
| Patriot Polling | 1/16–1/24 | 812 LV |
Keith Gross (R)
Evan Power (R)
|