CT-05 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
98% Dem
Rep 2%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Jahana Hayes | 97% |
| Chris Shea | 2% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Jahana Hayes | 97% |
| Chris Shea | 2% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/3/2026: 92% | 10/29/2026: 97% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 84% | 10/29/2026: 97% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 8% | 10/29/2026: 2% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 6% | 10/29/2026: 2% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+6.0
Jahana Hayes (D)
51%
Chris Shea (R)
45%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Jahana Hayes | Democrat |
| Chris Shea | Republican |
| Jonathan DeBarros | Other |
CT-05 House race: polls over time
1 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Chris Shea 45%
Jahana Hayes 51%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Shea | 45% | 1 | 10/1/2026 |
| Jahana Hayes | 51% | 1 | 10/1/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnMessage Inc. | 9/29–10/1 | 400 LV |
Jahana Hayes (D)
Chris Shea (R)
|