CA-22 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
91% Dem
Rep 9%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Randy Villegas | 90% |
| David Valadao | 10% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Randy Villegas | 92% |
| David Valadao | 8% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 66% | 10/29/2026: 90% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 68% | 10/29/2026: 92% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/4/2026: 37% | 10/29/2026: 10% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 34% | 10/29/2026: 8% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · —
Randy Villegas (D)
48%
David Valadao
44%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Randy Villegas | Democrat |
| David Valadao | Republican |
CA-22 House race: polls over time
2 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Randy Villegas 48%
David G. Valadao 44%
David Valadao 44%
Jasmeet Bains 21%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Villegas | 48% | 2 | 6/21/2026 |
| David G. Valadao | 44% | 1 | 5/6/2026 |
| David Valadao | 44% | 1 | 6/21/2026 |
| Jasmeet Bains | 21% | 1 | 5/6/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research | 6/15–6/21 | 800 LV |
Randy Villegas (D)
David Valadao
|
| Data for Progress | 5/1–5/6 | 517 LV |
David G. Valadao (R)
Randy Villegas (D)
Jasmeet Bains (D)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 8/6–8/8 | 547 A |
David Valadao
Jasmeet Bains (D)
|