CA-09 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
>99% Dem
Rep <1%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Josh Harder | 98% |
| John McBride | 1% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Josh Harder | 99% |
| John McBride | <1% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/4/2026: 94% | 10/28/2026: 98% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 92% | 10/28/2026: 99% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/3/2026: 5% | 10/28/2026: 1% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 8% | 10/28/2026: <1% |
Poll average
No polls of this race yet.
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| John McBride | Republican |
| Josh Harder | Democrat |