CA-01 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
96% Dem
Rep 4%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Mike McGuire | 96% |
| James Gallagher | 4% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 92% | 10/29/2026: 96% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 6% | 10/29/2026: 4% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+3.0
Mike McGuire (D)
33%
James Gallagher (R)
30%
Audrey Denney (D)
18%
Angelita Valles (R)
4%
Kyle Wilson (D)
2%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Mike McGuire | Democrat |
| James Gallagher | Republican |
CA-01 House race: polls over time
1 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Angelita Valles 4%
Audrey Denney 18%
James Gallagher 30%
Kyle Wilson 2%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angelita Valles | 4% | 1 | 2/28/2026 |
| Audrey Denney | 18% | 1 | 2/28/2026 |
| James Gallagher | 30% | 1 | 2/28/2026 |
| Kyle Wilson | 2% | 1 | 2/28/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Binder Research | 2/24–2/28 | 700 LV |
Mike McGuire (D)
James Gallagher (R)
Audrey Denney (D)
Angelita Valles (R)
Kyle Wilson (D)
|