AK-01 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
1% Dem
Rep 77%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Democratic Party | 1% |
| Republican Party | 78% | |
| Bill Hill | 22% | |
| Jim McDermott | <1% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 28% | 10/28/2026: 1% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 72% | 10/28/2026: 78% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · —
Nick Begich (R)
51%
Bill Hill (I)
49%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Nick Begich III | Republican |
| Eric Hafner | Democrat |
| James C. “Jim” McDermott | Libertarian |
| Bill Hill | Other |
AK-01 House race: polls over time
16 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Bill Hill 49%
Nick Begich 51%
Matt Schultz 35.5%
Nick Begich III 49.5%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Hill | 49% | 14 | 10/16/2026 |
| Nick Begich | 51% | 10 | 10/16/2026 |
| Matt Schultz | 35.5% | 6 | 7/16/2026 |
| Nick Begich III | 49.5% | 6 | 8/5/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress | 10/8–10/16 | 659 LV |
Nick Begich (R)
Bill Hill (I)
|
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 9/8–9/11 | 800 LV |
Nick Begich (R)
Bill Hill (I)
|
| The Bullfinch Group | 9/1–9/6 | 820 LV |
Nick Begich (R)
Bill Hill (I)
|
| Alaska Survey Research | 8/20–8/23 | 1,872 LV |
Nick Begich (R)
Bill Hill (I)
Eric Hafner (D)
John Williams (D)
|
| Alaska Survey Research | 8/2–8/5 | 1,371 LV |
Eric Hafner (D)
Bill Hill (I)
Clay Strickland
Nick Begich III
|
| Alaska Survey Research | 8/2–8/5 | 1,371 LV |
Bill Hill (I)
Eric Hafner (D)
Nick Begich III
|
| Alaska Survey Research | 8/2–8/5 | 1,371 LV |
Bill Hill (I)
Nick Begich III
|
| GBAO | 8/3–8/5 | 500 LV |
Nick Begich (R)
Bill Hill (I)
|
| The Bullfinch Group | 7/13–7/16 | 546 LV |
Matt Schultz (D)
Bill Hill (I)
Nick Begich III
|
| The Bullfinch Group | 7/13–7/16 | 546 LV |
Nick Begich (R)
Bill Hill (I)
|