AK-01 House race 2026
Our 21-day average puts Bill Hill at 49%, Nick Begich at 51%, Matt Schultz at 35.5%, Nick Begich III at 49.5%, based on 18 polls ending between 3/7/2025 and 10/16/2026. Dots on the chart are individual polls; the line is the rolling average. How to read these numbers.
AK-01 House race 2026 over time
18 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Bill Hill 49%
Nick Begich 51%
Matt Schultz 35.5%
Nick Begich III 49.5%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Hill | 49% | 14 | 10/16/2026 |
| Nick Begich | 51% | 11 | 10/16/2026 |
| Matt Schultz | 35.5% | 7 | 7/16/2026 |
| Nick Begich III | 49.5% | 7 | 8/5/2026 |
Average result
Unweighted mean across 18 matching polls
View data as table
| Choice | % |
|---|---|
| Bill Hill | 34% |
| Nick Begich | 49.2% |
| Nick Begich III | 47.5% |
| Matt Schultz | 31.7% |
| John Williams | 4.8% |
| Eric Hafner | 11.5% |
| Mary Peltola | 46% |
| Clay Strickland | 4.2% |
Individual polls (18)
| End date | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/16/2026 | Data for Progress | 659 LV |
Nick Begich (R)
Bill Hill (I)
|
| 9/11/2026 |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research
for AARP |
800 LV |
Nick Begich (R)
Bill Hill (I)
|
| 9/6/2026 |
The Bullfinch Group
for Independent Leadership Council |
820 LV |
Nick Begich (R)
Bill Hill (I)
|
| 8/23/2026 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,872 LV |
Nick Begich (R)
Bill Hill (I)
Eric Hafner (D)
John Williams (D)
|
| 8/5/2026 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,371 LV |
Eric Hafner (D)
Bill Hill (I)
Clay Strickland
Nick Begich III
|
| 8/5/2026 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,371 LV |
Bill Hill (I)
Eric Hafner (D)
Nick Begich III
|
| 8/5/2026 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,371 LV |
Bill Hill (I)
Nick Begich III
|
| 8/5/2026 | GBAO | 500 LV |
Nick Begich (R)
Bill Hill (I)
|
| 7/16/2026 |
The Bullfinch Group
for The Independent Center |
546 LV |
Matt Schultz (D)
Bill Hill (I)
Nick Begich III
|
| 7/16/2026 |
The Bullfinch Group
for The Independent Center, The Independent Leadership Council |
546 LV |
Nick Begich (R)
Bill Hill (I)
|
| 6/29/2026 | The New York Times/Siena University | 593 LV |
Nick Begich (R)
Matt Schultz (D)
|
| 5/17/2026 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,401 LV |
Nick Begich (R)
Matt Schultz (D)
Bill Hill (I)
John Williams (D)
|
| 4/19/2026 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,923 LV |
Nick Begich (R)
Matt Schultz (D)
Bill Hill (I)
John Williams (D)
Gavin Solomon (R)
Bronco Williams (I)
|
| 3/20/2026 |
Change Research
for Independent Candidates Action |
624 LV |
Nick Begich (R)
Matt Schultz (D)
Bill Hill (I)
John Williams (D)
|
| 2/12/2026 |
Public Policy Polling
for Bill Hill |
600 LV |
Nick Begich III
Matt Schultz (D)
|
| 2/12/2026 |
Public Policy Polling
for Bill Hill |
600 LV |
Nick Begich III
Bill Hill (I)
|
| 10/23/2025 | Data for Progress | 823 RV |
Nick Begich III
Matt Schultz (D)
|
| 3/7/2025 | Data for Progress | 1,008 LV |
Nick Begich (R)
Mary Peltola (D)
|