South Dakota governor's race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
3% Dem
Rep 97%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Dan Ahlers | 3% |
| Larry Rhoden | 97% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Dan Ahlers | 2% |
| Larry Rhoden | 97% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 1% | 10/28/2026: 3% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 5% | 10/28/2026: 2% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 97% | 10/28/2026: 97% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 94% | 10/28/2026: 97% |
Poll average
3 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+15.0
Larry Rhoden (R)
54.7%
Dan Ahlers
41%
Daniel P. Ahlers (D)
37%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Larry Rhoden | Republican |
| Dan Ahlers | Democrat |
South Dakota governor's race: polls over time
9 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Larry Rhoden 54.7%
Dusty Johnson 21.2%
Jon Hansen 18.3%
Toby Doeden 24.2%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Rhoden | 54.7% | 9 | 10/20/2026 |
| Dusty Johnson | 21.2% | 5 | 5/20/2026 |
| Jon Hansen | 18.3% | 5 | 5/20/2026 |
| Toby Doeden | 24.2% | 5 | 5/20/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 10/19–10/20 | 803 LV |
Larry Rhoden (R)
Dan Ahlers
|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | 10/12–10/14 | 500 LV |
Larry Rhoden (R)
Daniel P. Ahlers (D)
|
| Concord Public Opinion Partners | 10/6–10/8 | 400 LV |
Larry Rhoden (R)
Daniel P. Ahlers (D)
|
| Lake Research Partners | 8/26–8/30 | 500 LV |
Larry Rhoden (R)
Daniel P. Ahlers (D)
|
| Meeting Street Research | 5/18–5/20 | 450 LV |
Larry Rhoden (R)
Toby Doeden (R)
Jon Hansen (R)
Dusty Johnson (R)
|
| Emerson College | 5/18–5/19 | 432 LV |
Toby Doeden (R)
Dusty Johnson (R)
Larry Rhoden (R)
Jon Hansen (R)
|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | 4/7–4/11 | 500 RV |
Dusty Johnson (R)
Jon Hansen (R)
Larry Rhoden (R)
Toby Doeden (R)
|
| Emerson College | 3/7–3/9 | 413 LV |
Dusty Johnson (R)
Toby Doeden (R)
Larry Rhoden (R)
Jon Hansen (R)
|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 3/2–3/5 | 400 LV |
Dusty Johnson (R)
Larry Rhoden (R)
Toby Doeden (R)
Jon Hansen (R)
|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | 10/16–10/20 | 502 RV |
Dusty Johnson (R)
Larry Rhoden (R)
Toby Doeden (R)
Jon Hansen (R)
|