Oregon governor's race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
82% Dem
Rep 18%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Tina Kotek | 81% |
| Christine Drazan | 20% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Tina Kotek | 82% |
| Christine Drazan | 17% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 84% | 10/29/2026: 81% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 87% | 10/29/2026: 82% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 17% | 10/29/2026: 20% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 14% | 10/29/2026: 17% |
Poll average
6 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+0.5
Tina Kotek (D)
45%
Christine Drazan (R)
44.5%
Brett Smith (G)
3.8%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Christine Drazan | Republican |
| Tina Kotek | Democrat |
| Brett Smith | Other |
Oregon governor's race: polls over time
12 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Christine Drazan 44.3%
Tina Kotek 46%
Brett Smith 3.8%
Chris Dudley 14.1%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christine Drazan | 44.3% | 12 | 10/4/2026 |
| Tina Kotek | 46% | 9 | 10/4/2026 |
| Brett Smith | 3.8% | 5 | 10/4/2026 |
| Chris Dudley | 14.1% | 3 | 5/13/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO | 10/1–10/4 | 800 LV |
Tina Kotek (D)
Christine Drazan (R)
Brett Smith (G)
|
| DHM Research | 9/24–10/1 | 549 LV |
Tina Kotek (D)
Christine Drazan (R)
Brett Smith (G)
|
| DHM Research | 9/24–10/1 | 549 LV |
Tina Kotek (D)
Christine Drazan (R)
Brett Smith (G)
|
| DHM Research | 9/17–9/27 | 915 LV |
Christine Drazan (R)
Tina Kotek (D)
Brett Smith (G)
|
| DHM Research | 9/11–9/11 | 600 LV |
Tina Kotek (D)
Christine Drazan (R)
|
| DHM Research | 9/3–9/9 | 600 LV |
Christine Drazan (R)
Tina Kotek (D)
Brett Smith (G)
|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 6/22–6/24 | 600 RV |
Christine Drazan (R)
Tina Kotek (D)
|
| Predict Oregon | 5/7–5/13 | 538 LV |
Christine Drazan (R)
Ed Diehl (R)
Chris Dudley (R)
David Medina (R)
Danielle Bethell (R)
|
| Hoffman Research Group | 5/11–5/12 | 603 LV |
Tina Kotek (D)
Christine Drazan (R)
|
| Hoffman Research Group | 4/23–4/24 | 620 LV |
Christine Drazan (R)
Ed Diehl (R)
Chris Dudley (R)
|