Nevada governor's race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
78% Dem
Rep 22%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Aaron Ford | 78% |
| Joe Lombardo | 23% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Aaron Ford | 80% |
| Joe Lombardo | 20% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 59% | 10/28/2026: 78% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 60% | 10/28/2026: 80% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 44% | 10/28/2026: 23% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 42% | 10/28/2026: 20% |
Poll average
3 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+0.7
Aaron Ford (D)
42.7%
Joe Lombardo (R)
42%
Danielle Ford (I)
7%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Aaron Ford | Democrat |
| Joe Lombardo | Republican |
| Danielle Ford | Other |
Nevada governor's race: polls over time
13 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Aaron Ford 49%
Joe Lombardo 45%
Danielle Ford 4.7%
Alexis Hill 13%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Ford | 49% | 13 | 10/25/2026 |
| Joe Lombardo | 45% | 12 | 10/25/2026 |
| Danielle Ford | 4.7% | 2 | 9/26/2026 |
| Alexis Hill | 13% | 1 | 12/18/2025 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research Associates | 10/20–10/25 | 950 LV |
Joe Lombardo (R)
Aaron Ford (D)
|
| Concord Public Opinion Partners | 9/26–9/30 | 565 LV |
Joe Lombardo (R)
Aaron Ford (D)
|
| Noble Predictive Insights | 9/22–9/26 | 800 RV |
Joe Lombardo (R)
Aaron Ford (D)
Danielle Ford (I)
|
| Emerson College | 9/5–9/8 | 680 LV |
Joe Lombardo (R)
Aaron Ford (D)
Danielle Ford (I)
|
| Tarrance Group | 7/25–7/29 | 550 LV |
Joe Lombardo (R)
Aaron Ford (D)
|
| Grassroots Targeting | 7/8–7/16 | 2,500 LV |
Joe Lombardo (R)
Aaron Ford (D)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 7/15–7/16 | 558 LV |
Joe Lombardo (R)
Aaron Ford (D)
|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 6/27–6/29 | 600 LV |
Joe Lombardo (R)
Aaron Ford (D)
|
| Global Strategy Group | 5/5–5/11 | 700 LV |
Joe Lombardo (R)
Aaron Ford (D)
|
| Noble Predictive Insights | 3/10–3/13 | 845 RV |
Joe Lombardo (R)
Aaron Ford (D)
|