New Hampshire governor's race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
7% Dem
Rep 93%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Cinde Warmington | 7% |
| Kelly Ayotte | 93% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 26% | 10/28/2026: 7% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 46% | 10/28/2026: 93% |
Poll average
6 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+9.2
Kelly Ayotte (R)
50.7%
Cinde Warmington (D)
41.5%
Stephen Villee (L)
2.5%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Cinde Warmington | Democrat |
| Kelly Ayotte | Republican |
| Stephen Villee | Libertarian |
New Hampshire governor's race: polls over time
16 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Kelly Ayotte 51%
Cinde Warmington 40%
Jon Kiper 31%
Stephen Villee 3%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Ayotte | 51% | 16 | 10/20/2026 |
| Cinde Warmington | 40% | 13 | 10/20/2026 |
| Jon Kiper | 31% | 3 | 3/18/2026 |
| Stephen Villee | 3% | 2 | 10/12/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Anselm | 10/19–10/20 | 1,672 LV |
Kelly Ayotte (R)
Cinde Warmington (D)
|
| National Public Affairs | 10/8–10/12 | 600 LV |
Kelly Ayotte (R)
Cinde Warmington (D)
Stephen Villee (L)
|
| YouGov | 9/28–10/5 | 1,520 LV |
Kelly Ayotte (R)
Cinde Warmington (D)
|
| St. Anselm | 9/28–9/29 | 1,042 LV |
Kelly Ayotte (R)
Cinde Warmington (D)
|
| The New York Times/Siena University | 9/15–9/22 | 613 LV |
Kelly Ayotte (R)
Cinde Warmington (D)
|
| University of New Hampshire | 9/17–9/21 | 1,418 LV |
Kelly Ayotte (R)
Cinde Warmington (D)
Stephen Villee (L)
|
| co/efficient | 9/9–9/11 | 958 LV |
Kelly Ayotte (R)
Cinde Warmington (D)
|
| University of New Hampshire | 8/20–8/24 | 1,878 LV |
Kelly Ayotte (R)
Cinde Warmington (D)
|
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 8/17–8/18 | 1,411 LV |
Kelly Ayotte (R)
Cinde Warmington (D)
|
| Saint Anselm | 6/24–6/25 | 1,614 RV |
Kelly Ayotte (R)
Cinde Warmington (D)
|