California governor's race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
97% Dem
Rep 3%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Xavier Becerra | 96% |
| Steve Hilton | 3% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Xavier Becerra | 97% |
| Steve Hilton | 3% | |
| Tom Steyer | <1% | |
| Rick Caruso | <1% | |
| Alex Padilla | <1% | |
| Katie Porter | <1% | |
| Antonio Villaraigosa | <1% | |
| Stephen Cloobeck | <1% | |
| Butch Ware | <1% | |
| Betty Yee | <1% | |
| Toni Atkins | <1% | |
| Kyle Langford | <1% | |
| Chad Bianco | <1% | |
| Eleni Kounalakis | <1% | |
| Daniel Mercuri | <1% | |
| Tony Thurmond | <1% | |
| Michael Younger | <1% | |
| Leo Zacky | <1% | |
| Nicole Shanahan | <1% | |
| Eric Swalwell | <1% | |
| Kamala Harris | <1% | |
| Matt Mahan | <1% | |
| Elaine Culotti | <1% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 89% | 10/29/2026: 96% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 11% | 10/29/2026: 3% |
Poll average
8 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+20.4
Xavier Becerra (D)
57.1%
Steve Hilton (R)
36.7%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Steve Hilton | Republican |
| Xavier Becerra | Democrat |
California governor's race: polls over time
72 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Steve Hilton 36.1%
Xavier Becerra 58.6%
Katie Porter 9.1%
Chad Bianco 11.2%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Hilton | 36.1% | 71 | 10/24/2026 |
| Xavier Becerra | 58.6% | 70 | 10/24/2026 |
| Katie Porter | 9.1% | 55 | 5/31/2026 |
| Chad Bianco | 11.2% | 54 | 5/31/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 10/19–10/24 | 799 LV |
Xavier Becerra (D)
Steve Hilton (R)
|
| Public Policy Institute of California | 10/16–10/22 | 1,086 LV |
Xavier Becerra (D)
Steve Hilton (R)
|
| McLaughlin & Associates | 10/17–10/20 | 800 LV |
Xavier Becerra (D)
Steve Hilton (R)
|
| Emerson College | 10/17–10/19 | 1,000 LV |
Xavier Becerra (D)
Steve Hilton (R)
|
| ActiVote | 9/24–10/16 | 400 LV |
Xavier Becerra (D)
Steve Hilton (R)
|
| University of California Berkeley Jack Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research/Verasight/TrueDot | 10/9–10/14 | 909 LV |
Xavier Becerra (D)
Steve Hilton (R)
|
| Manhattan Institute | 9/24–10/1 | 1,000 LV |
Xavier Becerra (D)
Steve Hilton (R)
|
| IVC Media | 9/23–9/28 | 2,906 LV |
Xavier Becerra (D)
Steve Hilton (R)
|
| SurveyUSA | 9/15–9/20 | 742 LV |
Xavier Becerra (D)
Steve Hilton (R)
|
| UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 9/15–9/20 | 4,512 LV |
Xavier Becerra (D)
Steve Hilton (R)
|