CA-40 House race 2026
Our 21-day average puts Young Kim at 38.5%, Ken Calvert at 34.5%, Esther Kim-Varet at 20%, Joe Kerr at 4%, based on 7 polls ending between 1/19/2026 and 9/9/2026. Dots on the chart are individual polls; the line is the rolling average. How to read these numbers.
CA-40 House race 2026 over time
7 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Young Kim 38.5%
Ken Calvert 34.5%
Esther Kim-Varet 20%
Joe Kerr 4%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Young Kim | 38.5% | 7 | 9/9/2026 |
| Ken Calvert | 34.5% | 6 | 9/9/2026 |
| Esther Kim-Varet | 20% | 4 | 5/4/2026 |
| Joe Kerr | 4% | 3 | 5/4/2026 |
Average result
Unweighted mean across 7 matching polls
View data as table
| Choice | % |
|---|---|
| Young Kim | 31.3% |
| Ken Calvert | 28.8% |
| Esther Kim-Varet | 21.5% |
| Joe Kerr | 11% |
| Lisa Ramirez | 9.5% |
| Nina Linh | 1% |
| Claude Keissieh | 0.5% |
Individual polls (7)
| End date | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/9/2026 |
Grassroots Targeting
for California First Fund |
800 LV |
Ken Calvert (R)
Young Kim (R)
|
| 8/20/2026 | Public Opinion Strategies | 400 LV |
Ken Calvert (R)
Young Kim (R)
|
| 7/12/2026 |
American Viewpoint
for California First Fund |
400 LV |
Ken Calvert (R)
Young Kim (R)
|
| 5/4/2026 | Tulchin Research | 500 LV |
Ken Calvert (R)
Young Kim (R)
Esther Kim-Varet (D)
Lisa Ramirez (D)
Joe Kerr (D)
Nina Linh (I)
Claude Keissieh (D)
|
| 1/27/2026 | Public Opinion Strategies | 400 LV |
Young Kim (R)
Joe Kerr (D)
Ken Calvert (R)
Esther Kim-Varet (D)
|
| 1/19/2026 | Tulchin Research | 800 LV |
Ken Calvert (R)
Young Kim (R)
Lisa Ramirez (D)
Esther Kim-Varet (D)
Joe Kerr (D)
Nina Linh (I)
Claude Keissieh (D)
|
| 1/19/2026 | Tulchin Research | 800 LV |
Young Kim (R)
Esther Kim-Varet (D)
|