Tennessee Senate race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
4% Dem
Rep 96%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Marquita Bradshaw | 4% |
| Bill Hagerty | 96% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Marquita Bradshaw | 4% |
| Bill Hagerty | 96% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 3% | 10/28/2026: 4% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 8% | 10/28/2026: 4% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/4/2026: 92% | 10/28/2026: 96% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 93% | 10/28/2026: 96% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+20.0
Bill Hagerty (R)
51%
Marquita Bradshaw (D)
31%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Bill Hagerty | Republican |
| Marquita Bradshaw | Democrat |
Tennessee Senate race: polls over time
1 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Bill Hagerty 51%
Marquita Bradshaw 31%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Hagerty | 51% | 1 | 8/26/2026 |
| Marquita Bradshaw | 31% | 1 | 8/26/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research | 8/15–8/26 | 1,157 RV |
Bill Hagerty (R)
Marquita Bradshaw (D)
|