Massachusetts Senate race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
98% Dem
Rep 2%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Ed Markey | 98% |
| John Deaton | 2% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Ed Markey | 98% |
| John Deaton | 2% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 96% | 10/28/2026: 98% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 94% | 10/28/2026: 98% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 2% | 10/28/2026: 2% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 4% | 10/28/2026: 2% |
Poll average
4 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+26.0
Ed Markey (D)
55.2%
John Deaton (R)
29.2%
Joe Tache (O)
3.8%
Shriya Ayyadurai
3%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Edward J. Markey | Democrat |
| John Deaton | Republican |
| Joe Tache | Other |
| Shiva Ayyadurai | Independent |
Massachusetts Senate race: polls over time
26 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
John Deaton 30.5%
Ed Markey 58%
Seth Moulton 37.1%
Joe Tache 2%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Deaton | 30.5% | 19 | 10/17/2026 |
| Ed Markey | 58% | 18 | 10/17/2026 |
| Seth Moulton | 37.1% | 14 | 8/29/2026 |
| Joe Tache | 2% | 6 | 10/17/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | 10/14–10/17 | 500 LV |
Ed Markey (D)
John Deaton (R)
Joe Tache (O)
Shriya Ayyadurai
|
| University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science/YouGov | 10/5–10/12 | 800 RV |
Ed Markey (D)
John Deaton (R)
Joe Tache (O)
Shriya Ayyadurai
|
| MassINC Polling Group | 9/14–9/22 | 800 LV |
Ed Markey (D)
John Deaton (R)
Joe Tache (O)
Shriya Ayyadurai
|
| University of New Hampshire | 9/17–9/21 | 564 LV |
Ed Markey (D)
John Deaton (R)
Joe Tache (O)
|
| Emerson College | 8/28–8/29 | 550 LV |
Ed Markey (D)
Seth Moulton (D)
|
| University of New Hampshire | 8/20–8/24 | 881 LV |
Ed Markey (D)
John Deaton (R)
Joe Tache (O)
|
| University of New Hampshire | 8/20–8/24 | 881 LV |
Seth Moulton (D)
John Deaton (R)
Joe Tache (O)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 8/17–8/18 | 645 LV |
Ed Markey (D)
Seth Moulton (D)
|
| Suffolk University | 8/13–8/16 | 500 LV |
Ed Markey (D)
Seth Moulton (D)
|
| University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science/YouGov | 8/5–8/12 | 800 RV |
Ed Markey (D)
John Deaton (R)
|